Why Science Matters in Marketing
Everyone understands that architecture requires both creativity and science. A building must be visually appealing and structurally sound—ignoring the laws of physics would result in collapse.
Marketing is no different. While creativity is essential for building brands and engaging consumers, ignoring scientifically proven marketing laws can lead to ineffective strategies that waste money and even cost marketers their jobs.
Yet many marketing professionals are unaware of fundamental marketing laws that have been established through decades of data-driven research. This lack of understanding leads to widespread false beliefs about brand growth and consumer behavior.
The False Beliefs in Marketing
Most marketers assume the following statements are true:
❌ Brands have a stable group of loyal users.
❌ The key to growth is increasing customer loyalty.
❌ Heavy buyers are the most important to target.
❌ Brands mainly compete with a few direct competitors.
❌ Different brands have very different types of customers.
Sounds logical, right? But the data tells a different story.
What the Science Actually Says
Research from the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science has analyzed decades of consumer purchasing data across industries and countries. The findings reveal consistent patterns in consumer behavior that contradict many traditional marketing beliefs.
Here are the key truths about consumer behavior:
✅ Consumers make simple, low-effort decisions.
✅ They use brands to fulfill basic needs—not out of deep loyalty.
✅ Most consumers don’t give much thought to buying decisions.
✅ They don’t care about brands as much as marketers think.
✅ Brands exist primarily as mental shortcuts to help consumers identify products.
No matter how much marketers want to believe otherwise, the data consistently confirms these truths across different markets and industries.
The Laws of Marketing (Backed by Data)
The Ehrenberg-Bass Institute identified key marketing laws that help explain how brands grow and why loyalty-based strategies fail.
1️⃣ Heavy Buyers Are Rare
🔹 When analyzing all customers who bought a brand in a year, most of them are light buyers who only purchased the brand once or twice.
🔹 Heavy buyers (frequent purchasers) make up a small percentage of total customers—much smaller than most marketers assume.
2️⃣ Buying Behavior Is Unstable (Buying Moderation Law)
🔹 Most consumers don’t exclusively buy one brand. They have a repertoire of brands they purchase from.
🔹 Even so-called loyal customers frequently switch to other brands without a strong reason.
🔹 A heavy buyer this year might be a light buyer next year—and vice versa.
💡 What this means: You can’t rely on a fixed group of loyal customers. Your focus should be on constantly attracting new buyers.
3️⃣ Brand Overlap Is Predictable (Duplication of Purchase Law)
🔹 Consumers don’t see brands as special the way marketers do.
🔹 Brands share their customers with all other brands in proportion to market share.
🔹 This means a brand’s users don’t cluster around a few competitors—they buy from many brands in the category.
💡 What this means: If a brand has 10% market share, around 10% of any competing brand’s buyers will also have purchased that brand.
4️⃣ Bigger Brands Win Twice (Double Jeopardy Law)
🔹 Larger brands have more buyers—and those buyers also purchase slightly more frequently.
🔹 Smaller brands suffer a double disadvantage:
They have fewer users.
Their users buy less frequently than buyers of bigger brands.
💡 What this means: Loyalty is not what makes big brands big. The key to growth is reaching more people—not increasing purchase frequency.
Why You Should Focus on Penetration, Not Loyalty
Given these scientifically proven patterns, does it make sense to:
❌ Target only your existing customers? No.
❌ Focus on loyalty programs and retention? No.
❌ Spend heavily on personalization to target “best customers”? No.
📢 The best strategy is to increase penetration.
This means:
✅ Reaching as many category buyers as possible.
✅ Focusing on mental and physical availability (so consumers can easily find and recognize you).
✅ Not wasting budget on niche audience targeting—your buyers look just like any other category buyer.
The Negative Binomial Distribution Model
Consumer behavior follows such predictable patterns that statisticians developed the Negative Binomial Distribution (NBD) Model, which can accurately predict brand metrics.
Just by knowing a brand’s market share, the NBD Model can predict:
📌 The brand’s penetration (how many customers buy it).
📌 The average purchase frequency of buyers.
📌 The distribution of purchase frequency (how many buy once, twice, etc.).
📌 The customer overlap with other brands.
📌 The proportion of heavy and light category buyers.
💡 Why this is useful: If your brand’s actual data deviates from the model’s expected values, it can indicate opportunities for growth or problems in your strategy.
Real-World Proof: The IPA Case for Penetration Growth
Still not convinced that penetration growth is the best strategy? Let’s look at real advertising campaign results from the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA).
📊 Effectiveness of Different Campaign Approaches:
59% of penetration-focused campaigns won effectiveness awards.
Only 11% of loyalty-focused campaigns won effectiveness awards.
💡 What this means: Marketers keep running loyalty-focused campaigns despite overwhelming evidence that penetration strategies are far more effective.
📌 Market Share Growth by Targeting Approach:
Campaigns targeting existing brand users → +1.2pp market share
Campaigns targeting non-brand users → +1.4pp market share
Campaigns targeting all category buyers → +1.8pp market share
💡 The takeaway? Targeting everyone in the category delivers the most growth.
Key Takeaways
🔹 Marketing isn’t just about creativity—science plays a major role.
🔹 Data proves that many common marketing beliefs are wrong.
🔹 Loyalty is rare—most consumers buy from a repertoire of brands.
🔹 Brand overlap follows predictable patterns based on market share.
🔹 Bigger brands have more users—not because of loyalty, but because of penetration.
🔹 The best strategy is to reach all category buyers—not just heavy buyers or brand loyalists.
If you’re ready to apply marketing science to grow your brand, let’s talk! 🚀